The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran signals a seismic shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics, compelling the United Kingdom to reevaluate its long-standing approach to the region, particularly regarding Tehran. Decades of diplomatic caution and policy inertia have obscured uncomfortable truths—chief among them, the Iranian regime’s inherent fragility and its growing vulnerability to internal dissent.
Iran’s theocratic government, propped up by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its militia arm, the Basij, has long relied on repression and violence to maintain control. Yet recent years have seen a series of mass uprisings—January 2018, November 2019, and most notably September 2022—that have laid bare the regime’s eroding legitimacy. These revolts reflect not isolated unrest, but the culmination of more than forty years of public frustration and resistance. Within Iran, a silent civil war continues between the people and those who have hijacked their nation.
Despite mounting evidence of the IRGC’s role in domestic oppression and global terrorism, the UK has failed to designate it a foreign terrorist organisation—unlike the United States, which acted decisively in 2019. Had Britain followed suit, the regime’s capacity to crush dissent and export violence may have been significantly undermined. The IRGC’s influence extends far beyond Iran’s borders, with deep ties to groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. Its weakening, now accelerated by recent leadership losses, represents a strategic opportunity for the West to apply further pressure.
Claims that elements within the IRGC might one day dismantle the regime from within have been decisively debunked. The IRGC is not an independent military institution but a deeply loyal tool of the Supreme Leader, crafted explicitly to defend clerical rule. The idea of a reformist or rebellious faction within its ranks was always illusory. Similarly, nostalgic appeals for the restoration of monarchy, such as those advanced by exiled figures like Reza Pahlavi, ring hollow in the face of chants heard during the 2022 uprising: “Down with the oppressor, whether Shah or Supreme Leader.”
Iran’s future will not be determined by foreign military intervention or the remnants of past autocracies—it will be shaped by the Iranian people. The resistance has evolved, growing more organised and daring through networks of grassroots “Resistance Units.” One group offering a structured political alternative is the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), led by Maryam Rajavi. In May, more than 550 cross-party UK parliamentarians endorsed the NCRI’s platform, which outlines a path toward secular, democratic governance and nuclear disarmament.
The moment demands moral clarity and strategic boldness. The IRGC should be proscribed as a terrorist entity, and tangible support should be extended to the democratic movement within Iran. The end of theocracy is no longer a distant dream; it is a real and pressing possibility. With the right international stance, the UK can help ensure that the next chapter of Iran’s history is written not by tyrants, but by its own people.