The recent runoff election in Iran, necessitated by the death of President Ebrahim Raisi on May 19, may seem inconsequential. The true significance lies in the massive boycott of the first-round election, reflecting widespread disillusionment with the political system. According to the According to the Iranian opposition NCRI, a leading pro-democracy opposition group, only about 12% of the population participated, signaling a rejection of the regime.
Maryam Rajavi, President-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), summarized the boycott’s sentiment at the Free Iran World Summit 2024 in Paris. She asserted that the runoff election would likely be manipulated to favor Saeed Jalili, an ultra-hardliner closely aligned with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Jalili, a member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and former nuclear negotiator, has campaigned on a platform of aggressive foreign policy and strict social controls, reminiscent of the regime’s brutal enforcement of laws, such as the compulsory veiling for women.
Jalili’s potential presidency would likely escalate the repressive tactics that characterized Raisi’s tenure, marked by unprecedented violence against women and a peak in executions. Rajavi emphasized that even if Jalili loses, the outcome remains insignificant since the other candidate is similarly loyal to Khamenei’s directives. This loyalty test for candidates underscores the sham nature of Iran’s electoral process, a view that has led to repeated boycotts by the populace. In the 2022 election that brought Raisi to power, less than half of eligible voters participated, a figure now dwarfed by the recent election’s record low turnout.
The stark decline in voter participation is seen by many as a harbinger of revolutionary change. At the NCRI conference, former US Vice President Mike Pence highlighted the regime’s growing instability, attributing it to the widespread boycott. He noted that the regime is more vulnerable than ever, though unlikely to cede power without resistance. Pence praised the NCRI’s organizational capabilities, advocating for international support for Iran’s transition to democracy, as outlined in Rajavi’s ten-point plan.
This plan, endorsed by numerous Western lawmakers and former officials, emphasizes free elections, the separation of religion from the state, and rights protections for women and minorities. Its popularity among the Iranian diaspora was evident in the massive Berlin rally coinciding with the NCRI conference.
The NCRI’s network of “Resistance Units” has been instrumental in organizing the boycott and continuing anti-regime activities, keeping the spirit of the 2022 uprising alive. There is optimism that this momentum will lead to a larger uprising.
The international community must heed the calls for a revised policy towards Iran. The NCRI criticizes Western appeasement policies, arguing they enable the regime’s hold on power. A more assertive, coordinated approach could signal international support for the Iranian people’s democratic aspirations, requiring less political courage than the Iranian people have already shown in defying the regime.