On the eve of the sixth anniversary of Iran’s November 2019 uprising, the clerical regime faces a familiar and dangerous crossroads. Once again, the government is signaling an impending increase in fuel prices—a move that threatens to ignite widespread anger and unrest. Six years after bloody protests sparked by a similar decision, the regime of President Masoud Pezeshkian finds itself trapped between economic bankruptcy and fear of another nationwide explosion.
This is more than a policy dilemma; it exposes the decay of a corrupt theocracy that survives only through repression and plundering its own citizens. Confronted with catastrophic budget shortfalls, the regime is quietly preparing for another round of price hikes. Reports from early November indicate that emergency fuel cards are being removed from gas stations, leaving drivers stranded and causing long queues on major highways like the Tehran-Qom route. Simultaneously, discussions in parliament about introducing a new, higher fuel price tier have intensified public suspicion that an official increase is imminent.
The economic desperation behind these measures reflects a regime unable to sustain itself without extracting more from an already impoverished population. Every step toward reform or fiscal adjustment comes with the haunting memory of 2019, when a sudden fuel price hike led to one of the bloodiest crackdowns in Iran’s modern history. At least 1,500 people were killed after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordered security forces to crush protests that had spread across nearly every province.
Today, that trauma hangs heavily over the ruling establishment. The mere suggestion of raising fuel prices has triggered visible panic and infighting among officials. In a heated parliamentary session on November 8, MP Amir Hossein Sabeti accused President Pezeshkian of betraying his campaign promise not to raise prices. The next day, parliament issued a formal warning about the potential “shock” such a move could cause. Others have tried to deflect responsibility, urging the government to “prepare society” or offer subsidies before implementing any increase. These are not voices of prudent governance—they are expressions of fear from politicians who know they are sitting on a social powder keg.
The regime’s media has also begun to reflect this anxiety. On November 8, the state-run Jomhouri newspaper revived a telling quote from the regime’s founder, Ayatollah Khomeini: “Do not fear the outside… fear the inside.” The publication warned that corruption, injustice, and neglect of the people’s livelihoods were driving the system toward an internal crisis it could not withstand. This rare admission underscores the depth of the regime’s fear—not of foreign enemies, but of its own people.
Khamenei’s government now faces an existential dilemma. It cannot survive without more revenue, yet any attempt to raise fuel prices risks triggering the very uprising it most dreads. The regime’s crisis is not a temporary policy error but the culmination of decades of corruption and economic mismanagement. As Iran approaches the anniversary of the November 2019 protests, the parallels are striking and ominous.
Iran stands once again on the brink of upheaval. A bankrupt and repressive regime, haunted by its past atrocities, is confronting a society no longer willing to endure its tyranny. The only sustainable solution lies not in temporary economic fixes, but in the fall of the clerical dictatorship and the establishment of a democratic republic—an aspiration that millions of Iranians continue to fight for despite relentless repression.